World stocks awaiting economic recovery clues

LONDON — European stock markets fell modestly Tuesday ahead of an expected subdued open on Wall Street as investors awaited key data later this week for more clues about the speed of any potential recovery.

The FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 12.49 points, or 0.3 percent, at 4,281.54 while France’s CAC-40 fell 7.93 points, or 0.3 percent, at 3,185.75. Germany’s DAX was 9.20 points, or 0.2 percent, higher at 4,875.89.

The relatively lackluster tone was expected to continue at the U.S. open, with Dow futures up only 9 points, or 0.1 percent, at 8,467 while the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 futures rose 1.5 point, or 0.2 percent, to 922.70.

“There seems to be a distinct lack of conviction in either direction for traders at the moment and low volatility is the order of the day,” said Anthony Grech, market analyst at IG Index.

Investors were bracing themselves for volatility later as Tuesday marks the last day of the month, quarter and half-year. The coincidence of these fiscal period ends can create volatility as investors book profits, stake out new positions or alter their hedging strategies.

“The month and quarter-end could also see many traders out there looking to book whatever profits they can, again reigning in the upside potential,” said Matt Buckland, a dealer at CMC Markets.

During June, stock markets in the developed world gave up around 5 percent of the gains that they had made since March and investors will be looking to see if this week’s economic data can boost sentiment and renew the rally.

Looking ahead, Thursday is at the forefront of investors’ attention as it brings the European Central Bank’s latest interest late decision and the closely watched U.S. non-farm payrolls. Analysts expect June’s U.S. unemployment rate to rise around 0.3 of a percentage point to 9.7 percent — President Barack Obama has warned that it will top 10 percent in the coming months.

Equities rose from the middle of March until the start of June on hopes that the U.S. economy in particular will recover from recession sooner than anticipated. Many investors saw fallen stocks as cheap and started buying into the market. However, a run of downbeat economic news brought an abrupt end to the rally and altered the general mood prevailing among investors.

Tuesday’s news that the recession in Britain is even deeper than previously thought did little to alter the prevailing view in the markets that any recovery around the world will be a long, hard slog.

The U.K. office for National Statistics said gross domestic product fell 2.4 percent in the first quarter from the previous three month period, way more than the previous prediction of a 1.9 percent decline.

Renewed strength in oil prices, which powered to eight-month highs above $73 a barrel for a brief while, is considered a potential brake on economic recovery. Though higher oil prices can boost the earnings of oil companies, they have the capacity to rein in any recovery in consumer spending and stoke inflationary pressures.

By early afternoon London time, benchmark crude oil for August deliver was up 16 cents to $71.65 a barrel.

So far, however, falling prices remain at the forefront of central bankers’ concerns. Figures earlier showed that prices in the 16 countries that use the euro fell 0.1 percent in the year to June, the first negative inflation rate in at least a decade.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 174.97 points, or 1.8 percent, to 9,958.44, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng reversed early gains to close down 149.78, or 0.8 percent, at 18,378.73.

Elsewhere in Asia,South Korea’s Kospi inched up 0.1 percent to 1,390.07 while Australia’s benchmark rose 1.8 percent,

Singapore’s market gained 0.4 percent but China’s Shanghai index dropped 0.5 percent

Meanwhile, the dollar fell 0.3 percent to 95.80 yen while the euro gained 0.5 percent to $1.4145.

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AP Business Writer Stephen Wright in Hong Kong contributed to this report.