Japanese poll: More voters favor opposition party

TOKYO — A poll published Wednesday by Japan’s largest newspaper indicated that Prime Minister Taro Aso’s ruling party is headed for big losses in the upcoming national election — the latest sign that a surging opposition could grab control of the country for the first time in more than a decade.

The Yomiuri Shimbun’s poll showed that 45 percent of respondents think Yukio Hatoyama, the leader of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan, should lead the country, compared to 25 percent for Aso. Far more voters said they supported Hatoyama’s Democrats than the ruling party.

Japan has been ruled by the Liberal Democratic Party for nearly all the past 50 years, outside a brief period in 1993. Aso has called a national parliamentary election for Aug. 30, and the poll is the most recent indication that it could usher in a rare change in the country’s leadership.

The poll was taken after Aso’s announcement on Monday that he would call the elections. The opposition has steadily gained traction among voters during Aso’s term, which has coincided with the economic downturn and been marked by repeated political gaffes.

Aso had long put off calling the election because of his low approval rating — the Yomiuri poll said it was at just 19 percent — but was spurred into action by a Tokyo municipal election over the weekend, in which his party was beaten badly.

When asked which candidate they wanted to represent their district in the national legislature, 21 percent said the would vote for a Liberal Democrat, while 34 percent said they would back an opposition candidate. Under the Japanese system, voters also cast a ballot for a party. The poll showed 36 percent planned to cast this vote for the opposition, with 21 percent for the ruling party.

The leader of the party that wins next month’s parliamentary election will almost definitely become Japan’s next prime minister. The Liberal Democrats currently have 303 seats in the powerful 480-seat lower house, and their partner Komeito has 31. The Democratic Party has just 112.

The Yomiuri poll was a random nationwide survey of 1,047 eligible voters. Japanese polls do not give margins of error, but a random poll with this number of respondents would have a margin of error of roughly three percentage points.