Euro zone industrial output shrinks 2 pct in March

LONDON — The 16 countries that use the euro currency saw industrial output shrink by 2 percent in March from the previous month, pushing the annual rate of decline to a new record, the EU’s statistics office said Wednesday. The drop was far bigger than expected.

Though the decline represented a modest improvement on the 2.5 percent drop recorded in February, it was double market expectations of a 1 percent fall.

Industrial output is particularly important in the euro zone, as a number of economies are heavily dependent on exports of high value goods, such as cars and heavy machinery. That is why many forecasters, including the International Monetary Fund think that Germany, the euro zone’s biggest economy, will suffer a deeper downturn than others.

Eurostat also said industrial production in the 27-nation EU fell by a monthly rate of 1.9 percent.

On a year-on-year basis, Eurostat said industrial production for the euro zone was 20.2 percent lower and 18.8 percent down for the EU.

Wednesday’s data could well prompt analysts to predict an even worse drop in first quarter economic output when figures are published on Friday. At present, the consensus in the markets is that euro zone gross domestic product shrank by around 2 percent in the January-March period from the previous three months, up on the 1.6 percent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2008.

Ben May, European economist at Capital Economics, reckons the euro zone economy may have contracted by a massive 2.4 percent in the first quarter, especially as business surveys continue to point to a steep fall in service sector output.

And despite some tentative signs elsewhere that the worst of the export downturn in the euro zone may be over, May reckons that the industrial sector “looks set to continue to act as a drag on the economy for some time yet” as firms continue to run down their stocks.

Manufacturers across the continent will also be worried about the rise of the euro in recent weeks, as a stronger euro makes European goods less competitive in export markets.

The worse-than-expected industrial data, however, did cause the euro to drop somewhat, to around $1.3650 from $1.37.