Shares jump after Alcoa posts surprise 3Q profit

HARTFORD, Conn. — Shares of Alcoa Inc. rose Thursday, a day after the aluminum maker surprised Wall Street with a third-quarter profit and an optimistic forecast for worldwide aluminum demand.

For the first time in nine months, the aluminum maker returned to profitability, earning $77 million, or 8 cents per share, for the three months ended Sept. 30. That compared with profit of $268 million, or 33 cents per share, a year earlier.

Excluding restructuring charges, Alcoa’s earnings in the latest quarter amounted to 4 cents per share, easily beating Wall Street expectations of a loss of 9 cents per share. Analysts typically exclude one-time charges in its estimates.

Alcoa also forecast an 11 percent increase in worldwide aluminum demand in the second half of the year, fueled partly by growth in China. The lightweight metal is used in everything from airplanes to cars to houses.

Standard & Poor’s upgraded Alcoa shares Thursday to “Buy” from “Sell” and raised its 12-month target price to $18 from $11.

The ratings agency and two analysts increased their 2010 profit estimates for the Pittsburgh company.

Analyst H. Fraser Phillips of RBC Capital Markets raised his 2010 profit estimate to 33 cents per share from 19 cents. He cited Alcoa’s “more rapid achievement” of cost targets than he had assumed.

Citi Investment Research analyst Brian Yu doubled his 2010 estimate to 48 cents per share from 24 cents per share.

And Standard & Poor’s increased its 2010 estimate to 88 cents per share from 47 cents on cost-cutting and a gradual improvement in the aluminum market.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Alcoa to earn 49 cents per share in 2010.

Phillips said Alcoa’s near-term outlook remains weak. The company expects its fourth quarter to benefit from additional cost-cutting and lower prices.

“However, energy costs are rising, the company is cautious on all rolled product end-use markets, the only engineered products market where it expects an improvement is commercial transport and seasonal shutdowns are expected to hurt results,” he said.

Yu said he continues to estimate a profit in the fourth quarter on better alumina pricing.

Shares rose 50 cents, or 3.5 percent, to $14.70 in morning trading.