WASHINGTON - A new research conducted at Texas A and M University, US, has shown evidence of a possible link between El Nino and a severe flu pandemic in 1918 that adversely affected India.
The findings are based on analysis of the 1918 El Nino, which the new research shows to be one of the strongest of the 20th century.
El Nino occurs when unusually warm surface waters form over vast stretches of the eastern Pacific Ocean and can affect weather systems worldwide.
Using advanced computer models, Benjamin Giese, a professor of oceanography who specializes in ocean modeling, and his co-authors conducted a simulation of the global oceans for the first half of the 20th century and they found that, in contrast with prior descriptions, the 1918-19 El Nino was one of the strongest of the century.
Giese said that there were few measurements of the tropical Pacific Ocean in 1918, the last year of World War I, and the few observations that are available from 1918 are mostly along the coast of South America.
“But the model results show that the El Nino of 1918 was stronger in the central Pacific, with a weaker signature near the coast,” he said. Thus the limited measurements likely missed detecting the 1918 El Nino,” he added.
According to Giese, “The most commonly used indicator of El Nino is the ocean temperature anomaly in the central Pacific Ocean. By that standard, the 1918-19 El Nino is as strong as the events in 1982-83 and 1997-98, considered to be two of the strongest events on record, causing some researchers to conclude that El Nino has been getting stronger because of global warming.”
“Since the 1918-19 El Nino occurred before significant warming from greenhouse gasses, it makes it difficult to argue that El Ninos have been getting stronger,” he said.
The research also raises questions about El Nino and mortality from the influenza pandemic of 1918.
By mid-1918, a flu outbreak, which we now know was the H1N1 strain that is of great concern today, was sweeping the world, and the resulting fatalities were catastrophic.
At least 25 million people died worldwide, with some estimates as high as 100 million deaths.
India was particularly hard hit by the influenza.
“We know that there is a connection between El Nino and drought in India,” said Giese.
“It seems probable that mortality from influenza was high in India because of famine associated with drought, so it is likely that El Nino contributed to the high mortality from influenza in India,” he added. (ANI)
Related News
El Nino drives Panama butterfly migrationsOctober 6th, 2009 WASHINGTON - A long-term study has shown that El Nino, a global climate pattern, drives Sulfur butterfly migrations across the Panama Canal. Climate change has been linked to changes in the migration of butterflies in North America and Europe but this is one of the first long-term studies of environmental factors driving long-distance migration of tropical butterflies.
Misuse of aspirin may have made 1918 flu pandemic worseOctober 5th, 2009 WASHINGTON - Aspirin could have been responsible for the steep death toll in the 1918 flu pandemic, says a new study. High aspirin dosing levels used to treat patients during the 1918-1919 pandemic are now known to cause, in some cases, toxicity and a dangerous build up of fluid in the lungs, which may have contributed to the incidence and severity of symptoms, bacterial infections and mortality.
El Nino may be overshadowed by its brother in central Pacific due to global warmingSeptember 24th, 2009 WASHINGTON - In a new research, scientists have determined that El Nino, the periodic eastern Pacific phenomenon credited with shielding the US and Caribbean from severe hurricane seasons, may be overshadowed by its brother in the central Pacific due to global warming. "There are two El Ninos, or flavors of El Nino," said Ben Kirtman, co-author of the study and professor of meteorology and physical oceanography at the University of Miami's Rosentstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.
Researchers say weak El Nino under way, forecast strengthening in fall and winterSeptember 10th, 2009 Mild El Nino continues, strengthening expectedWASHINGTON — A weak El Nino is under way and it is expected to strengthen and last through winter, government climate researchers said Thursday. The periodic climate phenomenon is marked by warming of the central Pacific Ocean and changes in wind direction and air pressure that can affect weather around the world.
New El Nino may lead to increased drought in IndiaAugust 3rd, 2009 LONDON - Meteorologists have warned that a new El Nino has begun, which may lead to increased drought in Africa, India and Australia, and may make 2010 one of the hottest years on record. El Nino is a periodic warming of the normally cold waters of the eastern tropical Pacific, the ocean region westwards out from South America along the line of the equator.
Survivors of 1918 flu seem immune to swine flu, which thrives more in lungs than regular fluJuly 13th, 2009 Study: 1918 flu survivors seem immune to swine fluWASHINGTON — The way swine flu multiplies in the respiratory system is more severe than ordinary winter flu, a new study in animals finds. Tests in monkeys, mice and ferrets show that the swine flu thrives in greater numbers all over the respiratory system, including the lungs, and causes lesions, instead of staying in the nose and throat like seasonal flu.
Study: Deadly 1918 pandemic took years to evolve, through pigs, offering lessons for todayJuly 13th, 2009 Study finds pig role in 1918 pandemic's evolutionWASHINGTON — History's deadliest flu pandemic, in 1918, may not have made a sudden jump from birds to people after all. New research says the pig played a big role as an influenza mixing bowl — a gene probe with lessons for tracking today's swine flu outbreak.
El Nino returns; severe impact on global weather expectedJuly 9th, 2009 WASHINGTON — El Nino's back. Government scientists say the periodic warming of water in the tropical Pacific Ocean that can affect weather around the world has returned.
New form of El Nino may increase chances of hurricanes making landfallJuly 3rd, 2009 WASHINGTON - A study by climatologists at the Georgia Institute of Technology suggests that a new form of El Nino may be changing potentially causing not only a greater number of hurricanes than in average years, but also a greater chance of hurricanes making landfall. "Normally, El Nino results in diminished hurricanes in the Atlantic, but this new type is resulting in a greater number of hurricanes with greater frequency and more potential to make landfall," said Peter Webster, professor at Georgia Tech's School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences.
El Nino climate condition could develop this summer, forecasters sayJune 8th, 2009 Forecasters say El Nino may be developingWASHINGTON — A new El Nino could be approaching. Sea-surface temperatures have been warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean, suggesting the potential for the development of the El Nino climate phenomenon this summer, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Warm weather may not halt swine fluMay 10th, 2009 WASHINGTON - New data from Mexico and case numbers so far suggest that if the spread of H1N1 "swine flu" continues elsewhere as it has in the Americas, the virus could infect more than a billion people by July. The data also suggests that summer temperatures in temperate countries may not slow the virus.
Over 400 schools closed in US as swine flu spreadsMay 2nd, 2009 WASHINGTON - More than 400 schools in the US have been closed as the swine flu virus spread to 19 states, but President Barack Obama voiced hope the deadly disease will run its course 'like ordinary flus'. Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said confirmed cases have risen from 109 Thursday to 141 Friday with the flu now reported in 19 states, up from 11.
Some steps in US pandemic plan being used by administrationApril 30th, 2009 Some steps in US pandemic planWASHINGTON — The U.S. is following a playbook in battling the new swine flu, a federal pandemic preparedness plan prepared in 2005.
US has prepared to avert the worst if a flu pandemic explodes, now or laterApril 28th, 2009 Worst case scenario underlies US pandemic planWASHINGTON — Two million dead. Hospitals overwhelmed.
Homeland chief says US preparing for full pandemic amid swine flu outbreakApril 27th, 2009 Homeland chief says US preparing for full pandemicWASHINGTON — The head of the Homeland Security Department says the United States is preparing as if the swine flu outbreak is a full pandemic. Secretary Janet Napolitano told reporters Monday that the World Health Organization is operating at level three, with level six a full pandemic.
Loading ...